Our researchers forecast that average battery prices could fall towards $80/kWh by 2026, amounting to a drop of almost 50% from 2023, a level at which battery electric vehicles would achieve ownership cost parity with gasoline-fueled cars in the US on an unsubsidized basis.
A battery price war is kicking off that could soon make electric cars cheaper. Here's how The main cost of an electric vehicle (EV) is its battery. The high cost of energy-dense batteries has meant EVs have long been more expensive than their fossil fuel equivalents. But this could change faster than we thought.
Are lithium-ion battery prices falling?
The price of lithium-ion battery cells declined by 97% in the last three decades. A battery with a capacity of one kilowatt-hour that cost $7500 in 1991 was just $181 in 2018. That's 41 times less. What's promising is that prices are still falling steeply: the cost halved between 2014 and 2018. A halving in only four years.
Changes in battery form factor, materials, supply chain and manufacturing could add up to game-changing savings, says Elon Musk. Tesla plans to enter battery cell manufacturing to drive costs down. After much Muskian fanfare, Tesla's Battery Day revealed a smattering of improvements to cut battery prices in half.
How much will a battery cost in 2026?
According to the survey, average battery prices are expected to slip below $100 per kWh as soon as 2026. This is widely considered the “price parity” threshold with ICE vehicles. By 2030, prices could fall as low as $69 per kWh. The study also points out that geopolitical uncertainties and slower demand could impact pricing.
Are EV battery prices falling?
EV battery prices are plummeting, falling faster than most expected. This year will mark the steepest decline since 2017. With new tech and cheaper alternatives hitting the market, electric vehicles will soon be even more affordable than their gas-powered counterparts.
The improvements we've seen in battery technologies are not limited to lower costs. As Ziegler and Trancik show, the energy density of cells has also been increasing. Energy density measures the amount of electrical energy you can store in a liter (or unit) of battery. In 1991 you could only get 200 watt-hours (Wh) of capacity per liter of battery.